Turkey

Based only on expected domestic generation capacity, Turkey may need to begin importing electricity to meet expected demand as early as 2009 under a government high demand scenario and difficult hydrological conditions, though at least by 2013 under a lower demand scenario and normal hydrological conditions.

Given the rising demand for air-conditioning, the summer peak is likely to overtake winter peak demand in the medium term, increasing the prospects for imports during the summer period in particular.

Actual export opportunities to Turkey for new Georgian hydropower projects will depend primarily on such projects' generation costs vs market prices in Turkey. The latter increasingly will be deregulated through 2010, though will depend to a large extent on Turkish generation costs and the price of competing imports. Based on present Turkish generation costs and import prices, there is little to suggest Georgian power imports could not be competitive, even with a (possible) decline in Turkish wholesale prices as the market liberalises.

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